This Remarkable Scoring Streak Drives Villa's Improbable Push for Glory

Just two months ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery admonished him over missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were a sign or the source for Villa's more general malaise.

In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. When the England international curled home his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and roared. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, are somehow just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?

This is a particularly tough proposition to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.

Per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a club who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – but right now the margins are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for Rogers to rescue them with two clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened versus United.

The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, bent right inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

How Long Can This Continue?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.

A statistical correction may well be the biggest rival Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is another reality in which, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet find their top level.

• The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
• Jadon Sancho could transform into the force he was in Germany.
• The defensive duo are set to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.

This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would be third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.

The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the hero stood in front of the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.