A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
